Today’s FX Thoughts   -   MAY 21st

 

 

 

 

 

EUR/USD’s strong recovery on Friday has formed a striking “Outside Reversal Day” (typically the sign of a significant  turn in the market). However, my favoured Elliott Wave interpretation assumes this recovery as only a 4th-Wave correction. Also, there is strong Triangle Chart Resistance which will be a formidable barrier to Upside progress as well. So at this stage, I am viewing this recovery in the Euro as a corrective “bounce” rather than a significant Trend change.

 

 

 

Daily    EUR / USD

 

(b)

 

1.3485

 

 

 

 

2/

(2)

c a

Price

USD

1.36

 

1.35

 

1.34

 

1.33

 

1.32

 

1.31

 

(1)

1/                                        b

1.3

 

1.29

 

1.28

 

 

 

1.2630

 

(a)

 

 

(3)

 

Outside  Reversal  Day

1.27

 

1.26

 

1.25

 

1.24

 

1.23

 

09           16            23           30            06            13           20           27            05            12            19           26           02            09            16            23           30           07            14            21           28            04           11            18            25               02

January 2012                 February 2012                    March 2012                        April 2012                          May 2012                           June 2012

.1234

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Today I am Highlighting AUD/USD:

 

 

AUD/USD has sold-off “enough” for the moment (see Chart below) and whilst holding near support at .9820/.9800 I am looking for an imminent rally above .9870/85 resistance toward the .9940 - .9970 area.

 

 

I am now Buying the Ozzy, with a Stop Loss under .9800 (until .9885 resistance is cleared) for a target of .9940 - .9970.

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Daily    AUD / USD

 

1.0855

Price

USD

 

1.08

 

 

 

2/  or b

1.07

 

1.06

 

1.0475

1.05

 

1.04

 

1.03

 

 

1.0225

 

1/  or  a

1.02

 

1.01

 

1

 

0.99

 

0.98

 

0.97

 

 

 

12     19     26      02     09      16     23      30      06     13     20      27      05      12     19      26     02      09     16      23     30      07      14     21      28     04      11      18                 25     02

Dece mber 2011          January 2012                  February 2012                    Ma rch 2012                     April 2012                      Ma y 2012                       June 2012

0.96

.1234

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Disclaimer: Max McKegg & Technical Research Ltd accept no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage that may result, directly or indirectly, from any forecast, comment or opinion, information or omission, whether negligent or otherwise, within this report.