Max McKegg                                                      

                  24 Rama Crescent, Khandallah, Wellington 6035, New Zealand,  Tel. 64-4-479-0983  

Email :   TRL@clear.net.nz

These “Big Picture” forecasts are fine-tuned in my FX forecasting/trading service emailed to subscribers every day. For a 3 week trial of the daily service email TRL@clear.net.nz

February 4th, 2013

EUR/USD – “Big Picture” Outlook:

The Euro’s recovery persists & with support now around the 1.3400 level, EUR/USD is expected to extend its recovery toward 1.4250 over coming weeks. With Bullish sentiment heightened, I will then be looking for signs of Exhaustion.

USD/JPY – “Big Picture” Outlook:

The Dollar has now met my multi-month Objective of 92.45. There is no sign of exhaustion yet and therefore I am looking for the Dollar to extend its advance toward the high 90.00’s over coming weeks. At that point, amidst heightened Bullish sentiment, I will then be looking for signs of exhaustion; to herald a significant Reversal.

GBP/USD – “Big Picture” Outlook:

Sterling continues to trade within broad, contracting 1.7040 - 1.4235 Triangle consolidation which has persisted since August of 2009. Triangle support is now at the 1.5600 level But this may be temporarily breached, slightly. I would then be looking for a strong rally to ensue, to restore the ‘integrity’ of this consolidation structure.

CHF/USD – “Big Picture” Outlook:

Since peaking at .9970 in late July of last year, the structure of the Dollar’s decline against the Swissy is relatively unimpressive. I still see the Euro as being the better way to play this US Dollar Bear run.

I have no greater expectations than for the Swissy to trade within it’s Downtrend Channel (refer Weekly Chart below), until a Reversal occurs.

AUD/USD – “Big Picture” Outlook:

The Ozzy continues to trade within broad, contracting 1.1080 - .9390 Triangle consolidation which has persisted since July of 2011. Only a resolution to this pattern heralds the next significant Trend move.

NZD/USD – “Big Picture” Outlook:

The Kiwi’s entire price action since the GFC low of .4895 is still interpreted as a large Broadening formation. The Kiwi remains my better play against the weak US Dollar (compared to the Ozzy, where I still expect the Kiwi to gain significantly on this Cross) and there remains potential for NZD/USD to extend its advance over coming weeks onto the low .9000’s. Amidst a loud chorus of ‘Screams’ from NZ  Exporters, I will then be looking for signs of Exhaustion; to herald a significant Reversal.

GOLD – “Big Picture” Outlook:

Gold’s multi-month corrective consolidation persists, prior to the resumption of its longer term Bull market.

A break above $1696 is required to encourage a rally onto the mid $1700’s But only once the Key $1796 Resistance level is cleared, will Gold be positioned for a sustained Advance (see Weekly Chart below).

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damage that may result, directly or indirectly, from any forecast, comment or opinion, information or omission, whether negligent or otherwise, within this report.