FX Trading -  MAY 28th                                            

This analysis forms the background to my FX Forecasting service which is emailed each day to subscribers. It provides short term updates for EUR, JPY, CHF, GBP, AUD and NZD. A three week trial of the service coast $50. Email TRL@clear.net.nz

Over-View:

EUR/USD has now met my 1.2500 Medium Term Target and the Euro’s Downtrend displays the requisite wave form to enable a completion of the larger 3rd-Wave decline extending from the Wave 2/ peak of early June (refer Daily chart below).

However, In terms of the Elliott Wave structure of the market, my best interpretation calls for any such recovery to be a corrective 4th Wave; with the “bigger picture outlook” still risking a deeper sell-off toward the June 2010 low of 1.1860 over coming weeks. Only beyond the 1.3000 level would diffuse this Medium Term Downside risk.

Today’s Featured Trade is EUR/USD:

The Euro now has Support at 1.2550/1.2530, with a break above 1.2600/2630 resistance encouraging a corrective recovery toward the 1.2700 level, with potential as high as 1.2825.  I am now Buying EUR/USD, with a Stop under 1.2510, initially.